It seems to me that there are still too many unanswered questions to be able to judge Natal a complete success capable of revolutionizing the industry, or a joke that will fall by the wayside. Personally, I have major concerns about it. What games will utilize the technology? Will Natal work with Microsoft's "core" franchises, such as Halo 3 or Gears of War? How can these "hardcore" games make the transition to full motion control? Think about it. I'm pretty sure that the majority of players will not want to run in place for two hours at a time to get through a couple of Halo's campaign levels. With that being said, how else would a player get Master Chief to move forward? How would a player be able to look to the left or right in-game without having to take their eyes off the screen to actually look left or right?! What about jumping? I specifically remember several tips the salesperson gave me in order to make sure my 360 had as little a chance as possible of showing the three red lights of death, and one of them was to always keep the 360 off the floor. The reasoning behind this was that the tray in the system was incredibly delicate and finely balanced; any sudden movement could throw the disc out of the tray and into the laser eye, thereby scratching the eye and ruining the machine. I'm not saying this will definitely happen, but if a game comes along for Natal that at some point would require more than one person to jump at the same time, there's a potential problem.
Also, major developers might not really understand how to properly create enticing games for it. We've seen it happen with the Wii. It's been out for over two years and decent games that make a worthwhile utilization with its motion controls are just now starting to pop up. If that's the case, that would create a scenario where Natal starts to take off right around the time the next Xbox is coming out. Then, developers will be trying to learn how to work with a new system as well as new technology (Natal), and that just seems a massive headache waiting in the wings.
In addition, Microsoft has a history of releasing a product before it's fully ready for the public; examples include Windows Vista and the 360 itself. Both did not receive an appropriate amount of quality assurance testing and as a result neither received a warm welcome into the marketplace (although the 360 fared considerably better than Vista) Both had horrendous customer support issues. Microsoft lost over $1 billion on repairs for the 360's three red lights error alone. Will the Natal be capable of fending for itself when it's released into the wild of the consumer base?
Microsoft might very well capture the casual audience it has pursued for so long, but will this audience be a repeat customer? It's all about the software support that comes out with this peripheral. Third-party developers have had a difficult time creating a steady revenue stream from Wii products. Why? Well, accordingly to Doug Creutz of Cowen & Company, "...Nintendo is the dominant publisher on the Wii with over one-third of software market share on its platform. Guitar Hero and Rock Band account for one-sixth of sales. So the addressable market for third-party Wii titles is only about half of what the installed base would imply." First-party support has been the driving force in sales on the Wii; can Microsoft do a better job? It seems that the public's fascination and exuberance over the Wii is starting to subside, and it will be interesting to see if Nintendo can continue to remain the industry leader over the next couple of years.
All of the above is relevant because it's not difficult to understand that Microsoft is aiming straight for Nintendo's Golden Goose (the "casual" gaming audience) with this move. They want to capture those who have yet purchase a 360 or PS3 because, as Steven Spielberg termed it during Microsoft's keynote presentation, "...the majority of people are just too intimidated to pick up a game controller." With that in mind, if they accomplish exactly that, will the casual audience become a returning consumer for Microsoft? Or will it simply be similar to the Wii, where a vast number of people, both casual and hardcore gamers alike, purchase the product out of sheer excitement and novelty, only to then find a severe shortage of quality software for it? For the months of March and April, the Playstation 3 actually outsold the Wii in Japan (gaming trends in Japan are usually a precursor to upcoming trends elsewhere in the world). The appeal of this casual machine wore down over those two months (to be fair, however, the Wii regained its place atop the mountain in May). It will take more than just three or four games to make Natal a true, long-term game-changer for the industry. Yes, it will undoubtedly sell such numbers as to make Micorsoft's executives wet their pants, but will it still be a mainstay in ten years if it takes off like so many think it will?
That's the real question. No one is denying it will be a hit. Whether it can remain long enough to earn its place among historic gaming innovations, though, lies in the midst of uncertainty.
To sum up, lots and LOTS of questions for me. Natal's success and viability, in my opinion, will depend heavily on if (1) Microsoft actually insures it is ready for public distribution, and (2) what software will be released for it within its first eighteen months.
Let the experiment begin.
15 years ago
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